FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND MACHINE LEARNING: A BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL RESEARCH TRENDS

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29303/akurasi.v9i1.839

Authors

  • Iwan Kurniawan Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia
  • Nugraha Nugraha Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia
  • Maya Sari Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia

Keywords:

bibliometric, financial forecasting, machine learning, deep learning, stock market

Abstract

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence applications in finance has generated a large body of literature. However, a comprehensive overview of its intellectual structure remains limited. To address this gap, this study aims to map and analyze global research trends in financial forecasting and stock price prediction using machine learning between 2015 and 2025. Using a bibliometric approach, 197 Scopus-indexed articles were analyzed through the Bibliometrix package in R Studio following the PRISMA framework. The analysis includes publication performance, co-authorship collaboration networks, and thematic evolution. The results indicate an annual publication growth rate of 13.98% with an average of 16.16 citations per document. “Forecasting” emerges as the central research theme, closely connected with “machine learning,” “financial markets,” and “LSTM.” International collaboration accounts for 32.99%, with China, India, and the United States as the leading contributors. Thematic evolution shows a shift from traditional econometric approaches toward artificial intelligence and deep learning–based prediction models. This study contributes by providing a comprehensive intellectual map of AI-driven financial forecasting research and identifying future research directions for scholars, practitioners, and policymakers.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Aria, M., & Cuccurullo, C. (2017). Bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis. Journal of Informetrics, 11(4), 959–975. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007

Atkins, A., Niranjan, M., & Gerding, E. (2018). Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2), 120–137. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfds.2018.02.002

Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307–343. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(98)00027-0

Bollen, J., Mao, H., & Zeng, X. (2011). Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Journal of Computational Science, 2(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2010.12.007

Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1

Carriero, A., Clark, T. E., & Marcellino, M. (2015). Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 178(4), 837–862. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12092

Chen, W., Hussain, W., Cauteruccio, F., & Zhang, X. (2023). Deep learning for financial time series prediction: A state-of-the-art review of standalone and hybrid models. CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering and Sciences, 139(1), 187–224. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmes.2023.031388

Cobo, M. J., López-Herrera, A. G., Herrera-Viedma, E., & Herrera, F. (2011). An approach for detecting, quantifying, and visualizing the evolution of a research field: A practical application to the Fuzzy Sets Theory field. Journal of Informetrics, 5(1), 146–166. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2010.10.002

Corbet, S., Lucey, B. M., & Yarovaya, L. (2019). The financial market effects of cryptocurrency energy usage. Available at SSRN 3412194, 1–13. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3412194

Donthu, N., Kumar, S., Mukherjee, D., Pandey, N., & Lim, W. M. (2021). How to conduct a bibliometric analysis: An overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 133, 285–296. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.070

Dzigbede, K. D., & Pathak, R. (2020). COVID-19 economic shocks and fiscal policy options for Ghana. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 32(5), 903–917. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1108/JPBAFM-07-2020-0127

Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 50(4), 987–1007. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/1912773

Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417.

Fang, Z., & Wang, S. (2024). Boosting financial market prediction accuracy with deep learning and big data: Introducing the CCL model. Journal of Organizational and End User Computing (JOEUC), 36(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.4018/JOEUC.358454

Feng, F., He, X., Wang, X., Luo, C., Liu, Y., & Chua, T.-S. (2019). Temporal relational ranking for stock prediction. ACM Transactions on Information Systems (TOIS), 37(2), 1–30. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1145/3309547

Fischer, T., & Krauss, C. (2018). Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions. European Journal of Operational Research, 270(2), 654–669. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.054

Ghysels, E., Sinko, A., & Valkanov, R. (2007). MIDAS regressions: Further results and new directions. Econometric Reviews, 26(1), 53–90. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930600972467

Gu, S., Kelly, B., & Xiu, D. (2020). Empirical asset pricing via machine learning. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(5), 2223–2273. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa009

Gupta, R., & Wohar, M. (2017). Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150 years off data. Energy Economics, 62, 181–186. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.01.001

Hasbrouck, J. (2004). Empirical market microstructure. Economic and Statistical Perspectives on the Dynamics of Trade in Securities Markets.

Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). An introduction to statistical learning.

Henrique, B. M., Sobreiro, V. A., & Kimura, H. (2019). Literature review: Machine learning techniques applied to financial market prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 124, 226–251. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2019.01.012

Hung, N. T. (2019). Return and volatility spillover across equity markets between China and Southeast Asian countries. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 24(47), 66–81. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-10-2018-0106

Ji, X., Wang, J., & Yan, Z. (2021). A stock price prediction method based on deep learning technology. International Journal of Crowd Science, 5(1), 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCS-05-2020-0012

Jiang, Z., Xu, D., & Liang, J. (2017). A deep reinforcement learning framework for the financial portfolio management problem. ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:1706.10059, 1–31. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1706.10059

Li, T., Wang, L., & Xu, W. (2025). Financial forecasting and decision-making models based on intelligent algorithms and big data. International Conference on Big Data Analytics for Cyber-Physical System in Smart City, 69–78. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-0208-7_7

Lo, A. W. (2004). The adaptive markets hypothesis: Market efficiency from an evolutionary perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, Forthcoming.

Makridakis, S., Spiliotis, E., & Assimakopoulos, V. (2020). The M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 54–74. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.014

Marisetty, N. (2024). Prediction of popular global stock indexes volatility by using ARCH/GARCH models. GARCH Models (July 24, 2024), 1–19. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4904475

Meher, B. K., Puntambekar, G. L., Birau, R., Hawaldar, I. T., Spulbar, C., & Simion, M. L. (2023). Comparative investment decisions in emerging textile and FinTech industries in India using GARCH models with high-frequency data. Industria Textila, 74(6), 741–752. https://doi.org/10.35530/IT.074.06.202311

Moral-Muñoz, J. A., Herrera-Viedma, E., Santisteban-Espejo, A., & Cobo, M. J. (2020). Software tools for conducting bibliometric analysis in science: An up-to-date review. Profesional de La Información, 29(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3145/epi.2020.ene.03

Ntakaris, A., Magris, M., Kanniainen, J., Gabbouj, M., & Iosifidis, A. (2018). Benchmark dataset for mid‐price forecasting of limit order book data with machine learning methods. Journal of Forecasting, 37(8), 852–866. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2543

Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., & Brennan, S. E. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. Bmj, 372, 1–36. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71

Raghuvanshi, A. (2025). The ethical dimensions of AI in financial decision-making: Balancing innovation and equity. Journal of Computer Science and Technology Studies, 7(5), 220–227. https://doi.org/10.32996/jcsts.2025.7.5.28

Selvamuthu, D., Kumar, V., & Mishra, A. (2019). Indian stock market prediction using artificial neural networks on tick data. Financial Innovation, 5(16), 1–12. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0131-7

Sezer, O. B., Gudelek, M. U., & Ozbayoglu, A. M. (2020). Financial time series forecasting with deep learning: A systematic literature review: 2005–2019. Applied Soft Computing, 90, 1-63. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1911.13288

Sholapurapu, P. K. (2025). AI-driven financial Forecasting: Enhancing predictive accuracy in volatile markets. SSRN Electronic Journal, 15(2), 1282–1291. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5331686

Shynkevich, Y., McGinnity, T. M., Coleman, S. A., & Belatreche, A. (2016). Forecasting movements of health-care stock prices based on different categories of news articles using multiple kernel learning. Decision Support Systems, 85, 74–83. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2016.03.001

Sirignano, J. A. (2019). Deep learning for limit order books. Quantitative Finance, 19(4), 549–570. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2018.1546053

Tetlock, P. C. (2007). Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market. The Journal of Finance, 62(3), 1139–1168. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01232.x

Tian, M., Li, H., Huang, J., Liang, J., Bu, W., & Chen, B. (2022). Credit risk models using rule-based methods and machine-learning algorithms. Proceedings of the 2022 6th International Conference on Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, 203–209. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1145/3577530.357758

V. Vo, H., Nguyen, D. H., Nguyen, T. T., Nguyen, H. N., & Nguyen, D. V. (2022). Leveraging AI-driven realtime intrusion detection by using wgan and xgboost. Proceedings of the 11th International Symposium on Information and Communication Technology, 208–215. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1145/3568562.3568660

Zhang, Xiaolin, & Tan, Y. (2018). Deep stock ranker: A LSTM neural network model for stock selection. International Conference on Data Mining and Big Data, 614–623. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93803-5_58

Zhang, Xi, Zhang, Y., Wang, S., Yao, Y., Fang, B., & Yu, P. S. (2018). Improving stock market prediction via heterogeneous information fusion. Knowledge-Based Systems, 143, 236–247. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2017.12.025

Zupic, I., & Čater, T. (2015). Bibliometric methods in management and organization. Organizational Research Methods, 18(3), 429–472. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428114562629

Downloads

Published

2026-06-30

How to Cite

Kurniawan, I., Nugraha, N., & Sari, M. (2026). FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND MACHINE LEARNING: A BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL RESEARCH TRENDS . Akurasi : Jurnal Studi Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 9(1), 133–154. https://doi.org/10.29303/akurasi.v9i1.839